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10 de enero de 2018
Pronosticación a petición con Machine Learning en Elasticsearch Share
Nota del editor (3 de agosto de 2021): En este blog se usan características obsoletas. Consulta la documentación Map custom regions with reverse geocoding (Mapeo de regiones personalizadas con geocodificación inversa) para conocer las instrucciones actuales.
La característica de X-Pack de Machine Learning más reciente en 6.1 es la pronosticación a demanda. Antes, Machine Learning de Elastic estaba diseñado para usar datos históricos para predecir el rango normal de valores del momento actual y compararlo con los datos reales que veíamos para identificar anomalías en tiempo real. En 6.1, Machine Learning puede modelar los datos y predecir múltiples intervalos de tiempo en el futuro.
Se denomina “pronosticación a demanda” porque los usuarios pueden tomar una actividad existente de Machine Learning y, mediante el modelo predictivo incorporado en Machine Learning, pronosticar dónde se espera que ese modelo crezca en los días pronosticados. Los resultados del pronóstico se escriben en un índice de Elasticsearch que permite a los usuarios comparar resultados reales con modelos pronosticados.
Planificación de capacidad con Machine Learning y pronosticación Se ha dicho muchas veces que el desempeño pasado no es indicativo de resultados futuros. Sin embargo, la mejor manera de predecir resultados para la planificación de capacidad es usar indicadores de desempeño pasado.
¿Cómo puedes determinar cuándo un recurso en particular va a alcanzar su capacidad máxima? Por ejemplo, si estás monitoreando el espacio en disco de tu servidor, es posible que necesites estimar cuándo se quedará sin espacio. Puedes usar los modelos predictivos de Machine Learning de Elastic para pronosticar eventos futuros e identificar cuándo necesitarás agregar almacenamiento al sistema.
Otra forma de usar la planificación de capacidad es poder predecir una métrica de volumen en un tiempo específico en el futuro. Un ejemplo de esto sería intentar predecir cuántas llamadas de clientes espera recibir tu negocio un lunes por la tarde. Mediante el análisis de datos históricos y usando los modelos complejos de Machine Learning, tendrás la información que necesitas para tomar decisiones sobre el personal y los recursos.
Primeros pasos con la pronosticación Los pronóstico se pueden ejecutar desde el visualizador Single Metric Viewer de las actividades existentes de Machine Learning. Una vez que el sistema se actualice a la versión 6.1, aparecerá un nuevo botón de opción en la esquina superior derecha para pronosticar actividades.
Los resultados de la predicción para la actividad de Machine Learning se estimarán en una línea de tendencia de color amarillo oscuro con el modelo de confianza en una barra de color amarillo más claro. Si la barra de color amarillo claro es fina, indica que existe una confianza mayor en la predicción. La barra de color amarillo claro se vuelve más ancha a medida que el modelo de predicción se vuelve menos confiable.
Consideraciones al crear un pronóstico Existen muchos detalles que debes considerar al construir modelos de pronosticación para comprender mejor los resultados. Es posible que los resultados de la pronosticación no sean los que esperabas, además de que esta no funciona con todos los sets de datos.
Te recomendamos que recolectes suficientes datos históricos antes de intentar ejecutar una actividad de Machine Learning para pronosticación. El punto óptimo suele ser alrededor de 3 semanas o 3 intervalos completos de datos periódicos. Si ejecutas un pronóstico demasiado temprano en la fase de aprendizaje, antes de que el modelo se pueda establecer, probablemente se mostrarán resultados que no podrás usar.
Si los niveles de confianza del pronóstico exceden los límites razonables, el modelo de pronóstico se detendrá antes de tiempo. La actividad de pronóstico se detendrá y aparecerá un mensaje (como el que aparece a continuación) que indicará que el nivel de confianza cayó fuera de los límites aceptables.
Los resultados de pronóstico son mucho más fáciles de comprender si el gráfico modelo está activado. Esta es una opción y, en actividades de métrica simple, está activada de manera predeterminada. Para las actividades de métricas múltiples, la opción de gráfico de modelo se puede activar configurando la opción ‘model-plot-config’ en la configuración de una actividad de Machine Learning .
Para ayudar a rastrear un pronóstico específico fuera del visualizador Single Metric Viewer, cada pronóstico recibirá una ID única, denominada forecast_ID, de modo tal que cada pronóstico se pueda buscar de manera separada. Puedes ejecutar múltiples pronósticos para la misma métrica, pero la UI solo mostrará los últimos cinco pronósticos ejecutados para una única métrica. De todos modos, todas los pronósticos están disponibles y ocuparán el espacio de indexación correspondiente. Los resultados del pronóstico se eliminan automáticamente después de 14 días si los ejecutas desde la UI, mientras que el uso directo de la API te permite especificar la fecha de vencimiento. Consulta la documentación sobre pronósticos para conocer más detalles.
Machine Learning se incluye en la Suscripción Platino de Elastic, pero puedes descargar una prueba gratuita y probarlo .